Historical Counterfactual Analysis
If the transistor had been invented in 1920 instead of 1947, trace the likely technological, economic, and geopolitical implications through…
Of course. This is a fascinating counterfactual. An invention as foundational as the transistor arriving 27 years earlier would have sent shockwaves through every aspect of human society. Here is a detailed trace of the likely implications, focusing on second and third-order effects.Read the full answer
The Point of Divergence: 1920 To make this scenario plausible, we assume that Julius Lilienfeld’s theoretical patents for the field-effect transistor (FET) were accompanied by a breakthrough in materials science—specifically, the purification of germanium or silicon—allowing practical manufacturing by a major player…Read the full answer