Riverflow V2 Fast vs Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview
Compare Riverflow V2 Fast by Sourceful against Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview by Google AI, context windows of 8K vs 1.0M, tested across 2 shared challenges. Updated February 2026.
Compare Riverflow V2 Fast by Sourceful against Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview by Google AI, context windows of 8K vs 1.0M, tested across 2 shared challenges. Updated February 2026.
2 challenges
Write a pro-level buy-side investment memo with valuation and diligence questions.
MEMORANDUM
TO: Investment Committee
FROM: [Analyst Name]
DATE: October 24, 2023
SUBJECT: LedgerLift (Ticker: LLLT) – Initiation of Coverage
Recommendation: SHORT
Current Price: $46.00
12-Month Price Target Range: $17.00 (Bear) – $28.00 (Base)
Thesis: LedgerLift is a high-quality SaaS business priced for a reality its cash flows cannot mathematically support. The market is valuing LLLT on a lazy EV/Sales multiple, ignoring that even under aggressive bull-case assumptions (sustained >20% growth, 29% operating margins, and a 9% WACC), intrinsic DCF value peaks at $42/share. As revenue growth naturally decelerates from 21% to the mid-teens and investors pivot their valuation framework from EV/Revenue to EV/FCF, LLLT faces severe multiple compression, offering an asymmetrical short setup with ~40% base-case downside.
LedgerLift provides B2B spend management and Accounts Payable (AP) automation software for mid-market enterprises. The platform consolidates procurement, expense management, corporate cards, and AP routing into a single pane of glass.
Why it wins: LLLT replaces fragmented, clunky legacy ERP modules (e.g., legacy Oracle/SAP AP tools) with a modern, consumer-grade UI. Its 94% gross retention rate proves the product is sticky; once integrated into a CFO’s daily ledger and payment rails, the switching costs are immense. Why now: The mid-market is undergoing a long-overdue CFO tech-stack modernization. High interest rates have forced mid-sized enterprises to optimize working capital and clamp down on rogue spend, creating a structural tailwind for AP automation.
Methodology & Key Steps:
Assumes steady deceleration in growth and moderate margin expansion.
| Metric ($M) | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | FY30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (21% -> 12%) | 992 | 1,171 | 1,346 | 1,521 | 1,704 |
| EBIT (20% -> 26%) | 198 | 258 | 323 | 380 | 443 |
| UFCF | 146 | 191 | 240 | 284 | 331 |
Assumes flawless execution, hyper-resilient NRR, and elite margin leverage.
| Metric ($M) | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | FY30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (25% -> 13%) | 1,025 | 1,240 | 1,464 | 1,683 | 1,902 |
| EBIT (21% -> 29%) | 215 | 298 | 381 | 471 | 552 |
| UFCF | 159 | 221 | 284 | 352 | 413 |
Assumes macro-driven NRR collapse and stagnant margin expansion.
| Metric ($M) | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | FY30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (16% -> 9%) | 951 | 1,075 | 1,193 | 1,312 | 1,431 |
| EBIT (17% -> 21%) | 162 | 194 | 227 | 263 | 300 |
| UFCF | 118 | 142 | 167 | 194 | 223 |
Fictional Peer Median Multiples: 9.0x EV/NTM Rev | 35.0x EV/NTM EBIT
Applying the median comps to our FY26 Base Case:
Adjustment & Commentary: LLLT currently trades at ~7.4x NTM Base Revenue and ~37x NTM Base EBIT. While it looks slightly "cheap" on a peer top-line basis, the DCF proves that a 9.0x revenue multiple is fundamentally disconnected from the cash flows an 18-26% operating margin business generates. The market is pricing LLLT as if terminal margins will exceed 35% or terminal growth will stay >5%. As the market rotates from EV/Sales to EV/EBIT or EV/FCF, LLLT will re-rate downward toward the intrinsic $28 Base Case.
Catalysts for the Short (Downside):
Risks to the Short (Bull):
What Would Change My Mind (3 Falsifiable Triggers):
Build a simplified LBO with returns and sensitivities.
Here is the underwriting analysis for HarborTech Services (HTS) based on the provided parameters.
Assumptions: TL required amort is 1.0% of original principal ($4.8m/yr). Mezzanine PIK accrues at 2.0% annually. Cash taxes exclude PIK from interest deductions.
| ($ in millions) | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 972.0 | 1,040.0 | 1,102.4 | 1,157.6 | 1,215.4 |
| Growth % | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| EBITDA | 136.1 | 156.0 | 176.4 | 191.0 | 206.6 |
| Margin % | 14.0% | 15.0% | 16.0% | 16.5% | 17.0% |
| (-) Term Loan Cash Interest (9.0%) | (43.2) | (41.0) | (37.6) | (32.8) | (26.8) |
| (-) Mezzanine Cash Interest (12.0%) | (21.6) | (22.0) | (22.5) | (22.9) | (23.4) |
| (-) Cash Taxes (25%) | (17.8) | (23.2) | (29.1) | (33.8) | (39.1) |
| (-) Capex (3.0% of Rev) | (29.2) | (31.2) | (33.1) | (34.7) | (36.5) |
| (-) ΔNWC (0.5% of Inc. Rev) | (0.4) | (0.3) | (0.3) | (0.3) | (0.3) |
| (-) Required TL Amortization (1.0%) | (4.8) | (4.8) | (4.8) | (4.8) | (4.8) |
| FCF After Required Debt Service* | 19.1 | 33.4 | 49.0 | 61.7 | 75.8 |
| Ending Term Loan Balance | 456.1 | 417.9 | 364.1 | 297.6 | 217.0 |
| Ending Mezzanine Balance | 183.6 | 187.3 | 191.0 | 194.8 | 198.7 |
| *100% of this FCF is swept to optional Term Loan paydown. |
Returns:
Assumes the exit-year EBITDA margin impacts FY2030 EBITDA, FY30 cash flow/taxes, and the resulting exit valuation.
| Exit Margin \ Exit Multiple | 9.5x | 10.5x | 11.5x |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16.0% | 11.7% | 14.6% | 17.2% |
| 17.0% (Base) | 13.6% | 16.5% | 19.1% |
| 18.0% | 15.3% | 18.2% | 20.8% |
5 Underwriting Risks:
5 Downside Protection Levers: