Compare Riverflow V2 Fast by Sourceful against MiniMax M2.5 by MiniMax, context windows of 8K vs 205K, tested across 2 shared challenges. Updated February 2026.
2 challenges
Write a pro-level buy-side investment memo with valuation and diligence questions.
INVESTMENT MEMO: LedgerLift (LLLT) Date: October 2025 Recommendation: LONG Target Price Range: $35 - $60 Base Case PT: $45 (Implied downside -2%); Bull Case PT: $60 (+30%)
We recommend a Long position in LedgerLift. The company is a best-in-class mid-market spend management platform exhibiting best-in-class net revenue retention (NRR 123%). While near-term valuation is full (trading at 7.4x NTM Rev), the business is positioned to compound at >15% annually. Current weakness presents an entry point, provided management sustains >120% NRR and controls churn in the volatile mid-market segment.
LedgerLift dominates the "middle market" (companies with $50M-$500M revenue) for AP automation and spend management. Its edge is twofold:
We model 2026-2030 using the assumptions provided. Key modeling notes: Unlevered FCF = EBIT(1-Tax) + D&A - Capex - Δ NWC. Tax rate is 23%.*
Table 1: Base/Bull/Bear Financial Summary (2026E-2030E)
| Metric | Scenario | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($m) | Base | 992 | 1,171 | 1,346 | 1,521 | 1,704 |
| Bull | 1,025 | 1,239 | 1,462 | 1,681 | 1,900 | |
| Bear | 951 | 1,075 | 1,193 | 1,312 | 1,430 | |
| EBIT ($m) | Base | 198 | 258 | 323 | 380 | 443 |
| Bull | 215 | 297 | 380 | 471 | 551 | |
| Bear | 162 | 193 | 227 | 262 | 300 | |
| Unlevered FCF ($m) | Base | 146 | 191 | 240 | 284 | 331 |
| Bull | 159 | 221 | 284 | 353 | 413 | |
| Bear | 119 | 138 | 159 | 180 | 203 |
DCF Valuation Outputs:
Note: The current price of $46 implies the market is pricing in a scenario close to our Bull case or continued multiple expansion.
Using median peer multiples (EV/NTM Rev 9.0x, EV/NTM EBIT 35x):
Catalysts:
Risks:
Build a simplified LBO with returns and sensitivities.
1. FY 2026 – FY 2030 cash‑flow build‑up
| ($ m) | FY 2026 | FY 2027 | FY 2028 | FY 2029 | FY 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 972.0 | 1 040.0 | 1 102.4 | 1 157.6 | 1 215.4 |
| EBITDA (‑% margin) | 136.1 (14 %) | 156.0 (15 %) | 176.4 (16 %) | 192.0 (16.5 %) | 206.6 (17 %) |
| Cash interest – TL (9 %) | 43.2 | 41.0 | 37.6 | 32.8 | 26.8 |
| Cash interest – Mezz (12 %) | 21.6 | 22.0 | 22.5 | 22.9 | 23.4 |
| Total cash interest | 64.8 | 63.1 | 60.1 | 55.7 | 50.2 |
| Mandatory amort. (TL) | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Cash taxes (25 % on EBIT‑interest) | 17.8 | 23.2 | 29.1 | 34.1 | 39.1 |
| Capex (3 % of rev.) | 29.2 | 31.2 | 33.1 | 34.7 | 36.5 |
| Δ NWC (0.5 % of Δ rev) | 0.36 | 0.34 | 0.31 | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| FCF after required payments | 19.1 | 33.4 | 49.0 | 62.4 | 75.8 |
| Optional TL pay‑down (all FCF) | 19.1 | 33.4 | 49.0 | 62.4 | 75.8 |
| Ending term‑loan balance | 456.1 | 417.9 | 364.1 | 296.8 | 216.2 |
| Ending mezzanine balance (incl. 2 % PIK) | 183.6 | 187.3 | 191.0 | 194.8 | 198.7 |
| Total debt | 639.7 | 605.2 | 555.1 | 491.6 | 415.0 |
All numbers are rounded to one decimal; the model assumes cash is swept to the term loan each year (no dividends).
2. Exit‑year (FY 2030) equity return
Purchase price = 12 × $120 m = $1 440 m
Transaction fees = 2 % × $1 440 m = $28.8 m (funded by equity)
Sources
Exit (end of FY 2030)
Net proceeds to equity = $2 169.6 m – $415.0 m – $21.7 m = $1 732.9 m
3. Sensitivity – equity IRR vs. exit multiple & exit‑year EBITDA margin
| Exit‑year EBITDA margin | 9.5× | 10.5× | 11.5× |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 % ($194.5 m) | 11.7 % | 14.6 % | 17.3 % |
| 17 % ($206.6 m) | 13.6 % | 16.5 % | 19.1 % |
| 18 % ($218.8 m) | 15.4 % | 18.3 % | 20.9 % |
IRR is calculated as (Net Proceeds / $808.8 m)^(1/5) – 1.
4. Underwriting risks (5)
5. Down‑side protection levers (5)
Bottom line:
