4 models have responded to the "Mini LBO Underwrite" challenge. Compare their approaches side-by-side on Rival. This response is part of Rival's open dataset of 5,600+ AI model responses.
Gpt 5.3 Codex's response to the 'Mini LBO Underwrite' challenge.
You are underwriting a 5-year LBO for a private equity investment committee. Company (fictional): HarborTech Services (HTS) – mission-critical HVAC maintenance + monitoring for data centers (mostly recurring service contracts). Use only the information below. Do NOT browse the web. This is a fictional exercise. ENTRY (close at end of FY2025) - FY2025 revenue: $900m - FY2025 EBITDA: $120m (13.3% margin) - Purchase price: 12.0x EBITDA - Transaction fees: 2.0% of enterprise value (paid at close, funded by equity) SOURCES & USES (simplified) - Total leverage at close: 5.5x EBITDA - Term Loan: 4.0x EBITDA, 9.0% cash interest, 1.0% annual amortization - Mezzanine: 1.5x EBITDA, 12.0% cash interest + 2.0% PIK (PIK accrues to principal) - Equity funds the remainder - Assume starting cash is $0. - Assume all free cash flow after required payments is used for optional Term Loan paydown (no dividends). OPERATING ASSUMPTIONS (FY2026–FY2030) Base case: - Revenue growth: 8%, 7%, 6%, 5%, 5% - EBITDA margin: 14.0%, 15.0%, 16.0%, 16.5%, 17.0% - Capex: 3.0% of revenue - Change in NWC: 0.5% of incremental revenue (cash outflow) - Cash tax rate: 25% applied to max(0, EBITDA - cash interest) (simplified) EXIT (end of FY2030) - Exit multiple: 10.5x FY2030 EBITDA - Exit fees: 1.0% of enterprise value - Mezzanine (including PIK) is repaid at exit. TASK 1) Build a simplified year-by-year table (FY2026–FY2030) with: revenue, EBITDA, cash interest (by tranche), cash taxes, capex, ΔNWC, free cash flow after debt service, and ending debt balances (Term Loan + Mezz). 2) Compute equity IRR and MOIC. 3) Provide a sensitivity table of equity IRR vs exit multiple (9.5x / 10.5x / 11.5x) and exit-year EBITDA margin (16% / 17% / 18%). 4) List 5 underwriting risks and 5 concrete downside protection levers. Keep it concise, but show the math clearly.
Below is a clean LBO build using your assumptions only ($ in millions).
Debt at close (5.5x EBITDA):
Equity check: [ \text{Equity} = 1,468.8 - 660.0 = 808.8 ]
Key formulas used
| FY | Revenue | EBITDA | Term Cash Int (9%) | Mezz Cash Int (12%) | Cash Taxes | Capex (3%) | ΔNWC | FCF after req. debt service (used for optional TL paydown) | Ending Term Debt | Ending Mezz Debt* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 972.00 | 136.08 | 43.20 | 21.60 | 17.82 | 29.16 | 0.36 | 19.14 | 456.06 | 183.60 |
| 2027 | 1,040.04 | 156.01 | 41.05 | 22.03 | 23.23 | 31.20 | 0.34 | 33.36 | 417.90 | 187.27 |
| 2028 | 1,102.44 | 176.39 | 37.61 | 22.47 | 29.08 | 33.07 | 0.31 | 49.04 | 364.06 | 191.02 |
| 2029 | 1,157.56 | 192.00 | 32.77 | 22.92 | 34.08 | 34.73 | 0.28 | 62.43 | 296.83 | 194.84 |
| 2030 | 1,215.44 | 206.63 | 26.71 | 23.38 | 39.13 | 36.46 | 0.29 | 75.84 | 216.18 | 198.73 |
*Mezz ending debt includes annual 2% PIK accrual.
Less debt repaid at exit:
[ \text{Equity proceeds} = 2,147.87 - 414.92 = 1,732.95 ]
[ \text{MOIC} = \frac{1,732.95}{808.8} = 2.14\times ]
[ \text{IRR} = (2.1429)^{1/5} - 1 \approx 16.5% ]
(Revenue in FY2030 held at 1,215.44; only margin varied; debt paydown in FY2030 adjusted accordingly.)
| FY2030 EBITDA Margin \ Exit Multiple | 9.5x | 10.5x | 11.5x |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16% | 11.7% | 14.6% | 17.2% |
| 17% (base) | 13.6% | 16.5% | 19.1% |
| 18% | 15.4% | 18.2% | 20.9% |
If you want, I can also provide this in a compact “IC memo” format with an investment recommendation and pass/fail thresholds (min IRR, max leverage, covenant headroom).
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