4 models have responded to the "Estimate Complexity" challenge. Compare their approaches side-by-side on RIVAL. This response is part of RIVAL's open dataset of 5,600+ AI model responses.
Grok 3 Thinking's response to the Tests an AI's ability to make educated estimates based on technical knowledge
Estimate the total number of FLOPs required to train GPT-3 without searching online. Explain your reasoning step by step.
To estimate the total number of Floating Point Operations (FLOPs) required to train GPT-3 without searching online, I’ll proceed step by step, relying on general knowledge about the model and standard methods for estimating training compute in large language models. Here’s my reasoning:
GPT-3, developed by OpenAI, is a large-scale transformer-based language model known for its impressive natural language processing capabilities. A key piece of information is its size, measured by the number of parameters. Based on what I recall, GPT-3 has approximately 175 billion parameters. This number, denoted as ( N = 175 imes 10^9 = 1.75 imes 10^{11} ), will be central to our computation.
The number of FLOPs depends not only on the model’s parameters but also on the amount of data it processes during training. GPT-3 was trained on a massive dataset, including sources like filtered Common Crawl, Wikipedia, books, and other web texts. I estimate that the total number of tokens in the training dataset is around 300 billion, a figure that aligns with typical reports for models of this scale. So, let’s define ( T = 300 imes 10^9 = 3 imes 10^{11} ) as the total number of training tokens. For large language models like GPT-3, training typically involves a single pass (one epoch) over the dataset, so ( T ) represents the total tokens processed.
To estimate the FLOPs required for training, I need a method that ties the model size (( N )) and training data size (( T )) to computational effort. In deep learning, particularly for transformer models, a common approximation for total training FLOPs is:
[ C = 6 imes N imes T ]
Here, ( C ) is the total compute in FLOPs, ( N ) is the number of parameters, and ( T ) is the number of tokens. The factor of 6 arises from the computational cost per token during training, which includes:
Together, this suggests about 6 FLOPs per parameter per token, accounting for both forward and backward passes in a single training step. This approximation is widely used in analyses of large language models and simplifies the complex operations (e.g., attention mechanisms, feed-forward layers) into a single constant factor.
Using the formula ( C = 6 imes N imes T ), I’ll plug in the values:
First, calculate the product of ( N ) and ( T ):
[ N imes T = (1.75 imes 10^{11}) imes (3 imes 10^{11}) ]
So:
[ N imes T = 5.25 imes 10^{22} ]
Now, multiply by 6:
[ C = 6 imes 5.25 imes 10^{22} ]
Thus, the total estimated FLOPs is:
[ C = 3.15 imes 10^{23} ext{ FLOPs} ]
To ensure this makes sense, consider the scale. Large language models like GPT-3 require immense computational resources, often measured in petaFLOP-days (1 petaFLOP = ( 10^{15} ) FLOPs). Converting our estimate:
This magnitude aligns with the computational feats reported for models like GPT-3, though exact hardware details aren’t needed for this rough estimate.
The formula assumes a simplified transformer architecture and one epoch of training. Factors like multiple epochs, optimizer overhead (e.g., Adam), or specific architectural details (e.g., GPT-3 has 96 layers) could adjust the constant factor slightly. However, ( 6 imes N imes T ) is a standard heuristic in scaling law studies and suffices for an order-of-magnitude estimate without precise architectural data.
Based on this reasoning, the total number of FLOPs required to train GPT-3, with 175 billion parameters and 300 billion training tokens, is approximately 3.15 × 10²³ FLOPs. This estimate leverages a widely accepted approximation, balancing simplicity with the scale of modern language model training.
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