Historical Counterfactual Analysis
If the transistor had been invented in 1920 instead of 1947, trace the likely technological, economic, and geopolitical implications through…
If the Transistor Had Been Invented in 1920: A Counterfactual Trajectory to 1980 Preconditions and plausibility By 1920, Karl Braun's cathode ray tube (1897) and Greenleaf Pickard's silicon crystal detector (1906) had already demonstrated semiconductor properties. Quantum theory was nascent (Planck, Bohr).Read the full answer
If the transistor arrives in 1920 instead of 1947, you don't just get the iPhone 27 years early. You change WWII, you change who wins the peace, and you get the Information Age before television has even matured. Here’s the most plausible trace, with the caveat that invention is not production.Read the full answer