Historical Counterfactual Analysis
If the transistor had been invented in 1920 instead of 1947, trace the likely technological, economic, and geopolitical implications through…
If the Transistor Had Been Invented in 1920: A Counterfactual Trajectory to 1980 Preconditions and plausibility By 1920, Karl Braun's cathode ray tube (1897) and Greenleaf Pickard's silicon crystal detector (1906) had already demonstrated semiconductor properties. Quantum theory was nascent (Planck, Bohr).Read the full answer
The 1920 Transistor Counterfactual: A Plausible Alternate Timeline Through 1980 (Assumptions: A functional point-contact silicon-germanium hybrid transistor is patented in 1920 by a U.S. team at Western Electric (AT&T). U.S. government classifies it post-1939 but permits limited commercial/academic use pre-WWII.Read the full answer