Compare Riverflow V2 Fast by Sourceful against Claude Opus 4 by Anthropic, context windows of 8K vs 200K, tested across 2 shared challenges. Updated February 2026.
2 challenges
Write a pro-level buy-side investment memo with valuation and diligence questions.
INVESTMENT COMMITTEE MEMO
Company: LedgerLift (LLLT)
Date: December 2024
Analyst: [Name]
Thesis: LLLT is a high-quality B2B SaaS compounder trading at a discount to intrinsic value due to recent sector rotation out of growth software. The company's strong unit economics (123% NRR, 18-month CAC payback) and accelerating operating leverage position it to compound FCF at 20%+ annually while the market underappreciates its durability in a downturn.
LedgerLift provides spend management and AP automation software to mid-market enterprises (6,200 customers, $132k ARPA). The company has built a defensible position through:
Why It Wins:
Why Now:
Strengths:
Concerns:
Base Case:
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($m) | 992 | 1,171 | 1,346 | 1,521 | 1,704 |
| Growth % | 21% | 18% | 15% | 13% | 12% |
| EBIT ($m) | 198 | 258 | 323 | 380 | 443 |
| EBIT Margin | 20% | 22% | 24% | 25% | 26% |
| uFCF ($m) | 178 | 231 | 289 | 340 | 396 |
Bull Case:
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($m) | 1,025 | 1,240 | 1,464 | 1,683 | 1,902 |
| EBIT ($m) | 215 | 298 | 381 | 471 | 552 |
| uFCF ($m) | 193 | 267 | 341 | 421 | 493 |
Bear Case:
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($m) | 951 | 1,075 | 1,193 | 1,312 | 1,430 |
| EBIT ($m) | 162 | 193 | 227 | 262 | 300 |
| uFCF ($m) | 145 | 173 | 203 | 235 | 268 |
Key Assumptions:
DCF Results:
Probability-Weighted Target: $65 (40% base, 30% bull, 30% bear)
Median peer multiples: 9.0x EV/NTM Revenue, 35x EV/NTM EBIT
LLLT deserves a premium given:
Applying 10x revenue / 38x EBIT on 2026E:
Comps-implied range: $47-58
LLLT offers compelling risk/reward with 30%+ upside to fair value and limited downside given quality fundamentals. The market is mispricing durability - even our bear case supports the current price. Size up on any weakness below $50.
Build a simplified LBO with returns and sensitivities.
Entry Calculations:
Operating Model (FY2026-2030):
| ($m) | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 972.0 | 1,040.0 | 1,102.4 | 1,157.5 | 1,215.4 |
| Growth % | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| EBITDA | 136.1 | 156.0 | 176.4 | 191.0 | 206.6 |
| Margin % | 14.0% | 15.0% | 16.0% | 16.5% | 17.0% |
| Cash Interest: | |||||
| - Term Loan (9%) | 43.2 | 38.5 | 33.7 | 28.7 | 23.6 |
| - Mezz Cash (12%) | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.6 |
| Total Cash Interest | 64.8 | 60.1 | 55.3 | 50.3 | 45.2 |
| Cash Taxes | 17.8 | 24.0 | 30.3 | 35.2 | 40.4 |
| Capex | 29.2 | 31.2 | 33.1 | 34.7 | 36.5 |
| ΔNWC | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| FCF after Debt Service | 24.0 | 40.4 | 57.4 | 70.6 | 84.3 |
| Debt Balances (EoY): | |||||
| Term Loan | 451.2 | 405.6 | 343.4 | 267.6 | 178.5 |
| Mezz (incl. PIK) | 183.6 | 187.3 | 191.0 | 194.9 | 198.8 |
| Total Debt | 634.8 | 592.9 | 534.4 | 462.5 | 377.3 |
Notes:
Exit Calculations:
Returns:
IRR Sensitivity (%):
| Exit Multiple → | 9.5x | 10.5x | 11.5x |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY30 Margin ↓ | |||
| 16.0% | 13.4% | 16.0% | 18.4% |
| 17.0% | 14.5% | 17.0% | 19.4% |
| 18.0% | 15.5% | 18.0% | 20.3% |
Key Risks:
Downside Protection Levers:
