Compare Riverflow V2 Fast by Sourceful against MiniMax M1 by MiniMax, context windows of 8K vs 1.0M, tested across 2 shared challenges. Updated February 2026.
2 challenges
Write a pro-level buy-side investment memo with valuation and diligence questions.
Recommendation: LONG
12-month Price Target Range: $65-82 (41-78% upside)
Thesis: LedgerLift demonstrates superior SaaS unit economics with 123% NRR and 18-month CAC payback in an attractive B2B spend management category, where the company's 82% subscription gross margins and improving operating leverage support sustainable double-digit growth with DCF-implied intrinsic value of $8.4-13.7B (72-198% upside from current $4.6B EV).
LedgerLift operates in the high-growth B2B spend management and accounts payable automation sector, serving 6,200 mid-market enterprises with an ARPA of $132K. The company generates 92% subscription revenue at 82% gross margins, while maintaining strong customer metrics including 6% annual logo churn and 123% net revenue retention. The spend management category benefits from tailwinds including digital transformation, compliance requirements, and CFO appetite for visibility, while AP automation addresses manual processing pain points. LedgerLift's mid-market focus (top 10 customers = 16% revenue) suggests manageable concentration risk while maintaining enterprise-grade features. The category is consolidating around platforms rather than point solutions, creating cross-sell opportunities for the company's expanding product suite.
Strengths: 123% NRR demonstrates exceptional land-and-expand capability, while 6% logo churn and 94% gross retention indicate strong product-market fit. 18-month CAC payback aligns with top-quartile SaaS benchmarks, and 34% S&M efficiency supports scalable unit economics.
Potential Concerns: High NRR may partially reflect price increases rather than true expansion; 82% subscription gross margin, while excellent, suggests limited pricing power in competitive landscape. 34% S&M spend indicates continued investment phase rather than operating leverage optimization.
Base Case (WACC 10%, g=3%):
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 992 | 1,170 | 1,346 | 1,521 | 1,703 |
| Gross Margin % | 79% | 80% | 80% | 81% | 81% |
| Operating Margin % | 20% | 22% | 24% | 25% | 26% |
| EBIT ($M) | 198 | 257 | 323 | 380 | 443 |
| Tax (23%) | 46 | 59 | 74 | 87 | 102 |
| NOPAT ($M) | 152 | 198 | 249 | 293 | 341 |
| + D&A ($M) | 25 | 29 | 34 | 38 | 43 |
| - Capex ($M) | 30 | 35 | 40 | 46 | 51 |
| - NWC ($M) | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| UFCF ($M) | 145 | 190 | 241 | 283 | 331 |
Terminal value: $5.52B (2020 FCF × 1.03 / 0.10-0.03)
PV of UFCF: $1.24B | PV of terminal: $3.41B
Enterprise Value: $4.65B | Equity Value: $6.05B | Implied Share Price: $31.85
Bull Case (WACC 9%, g=4%):
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 1,025 | 1,240 | 1,463 | 1,682 | 1,901 |
| Operating Margin % | 21% | 24% | 26% | 28% | 29% |
| EBIT ($M) | 215 | 298 | 380 | 471 | 551 |
Terminal value: $8.75B | PV of UFCF: $2.01B | PV of terminal: $4.74B
Enterprise Value: $6.75B | Equity Value: $8.15B | Implied Share Price: $42.89
Bear Case (WACC 12%, g=2%):
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 951 | 1,075 | 1,193 | 1,312 | 1,430 |
| Operating Margin % | 17% | 18% | 19% | 20% | 21% |
| EBIT ($M) | 162 | 194 | 227 | 262 | 300 |
Terminal value: $2.91B | PV of UFCF: $0.89B | PV of terminal: $1.64B
Enterprise Value: $2.53B | Equity Value: $3.93B | Implied Share Price: $20.68
DCF Summary: Base $32, Bull $43, Bear $21 → Weighted average $32 (fair value at $46 = 30% downside)
Peer Multiples:
Revenue Multiple Application:
EBIT Multiple Application:
Comps Range: $44-54 (Bearish to current price of $46, suggesting modest discount to market multiples)
Overall Assessment: While DCF analysis suggests current pricing incorporates growth expectations, comps analysis provides modest upside. Strong unit economics and category leadership support long position, though competitive dynamics require monitoring.
Build a simplified LBO with returns and sensitivities.
1) Year-by-Year Table (FY2026–FY2030)
| Year | Revenue ($m) | EBITDA ($m) | Cash Interest - Term Loan ($m) | Cash Interest - Mezzanine ($m) | Cash Taxes ($m) | Capex ($m) | ΔNWC ($m) | Free Cash Flow after Debt Service ($m) | Term Loan Balance ($m) | Mezzanine Balance ($m) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 972.0 | 136.1 | 43.2 | 21.6 | 17.8 | 29.2 | 0.4 | 19.5 | 455.7 | 183.6 |
| FY2027 | 1,039.6 | 155.9 | 41.0 | 22.0 | 23.2 | 31.2 | 0.3 | 33.7 | 417.2 | 187.3 |
| FY2028 | 1,101.9 | 176.3 | 37.5 | 22.5 | 29.1 | 33.1 | 0.3 | 49.4 | 363.1 | 191.0 |
| FY2029 | 1,157.0 | 190.9 | 32.7 | 22.9 | 33.8 | 34.7 | 0.3 | 62.0 | 296.3 | 194.8 |
| FY2030 | 1,214.9 | 206.5 | 26.7 | 23.4 | 39.1 | 36.4 | 0.3 | 76.1 | 215.4 | 198.7 |
Key Calculations:
2) Equity IRR and MOIC
3) Sensitivity of Equity IRR
| Exit Multiple | Exit-Year EBITDA Margin | Equity IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 9.5x | 16.0% | 12.0% |
| 9.5x | 17.0% | 13.8% |
| 9.5x | 18.0% | 15.0% |
| 10.5x | 16.0% | 14.3% |
| 10.5x | 17.0% | 16.4% |
| 10.5x | 18.0% | 18.8% |
| 11.5x | 16.0% | 17.0% |
| 11.5x | 17.0% | 19.6% |
| 11.5x | 18.0% | 20.0% |
4) Underwriting Risks and Downside Protection Levers
5 Underwriting Risks:
5 Concrete Downside Protection Levers:
Summary: Base-case IRR of 16.4% and MOIC of 2.14x are achievable. Sensitivities show IRR ranges from 12.0% (low multiple, low margin) to 20.0% (high multiple, high margin). Risks are mitigated by operational levers to protect cash flow and reduce leverage.
