AI & Film Industry: A 2035 Forecast

What seems highly likely

Production tools will be transformed

• AI will handle much of the "invisible" work: rotoscoping, color grading, sound design, VFX compositing, and de-aging effects that currently require enormous teams
• Pre-visualization will become remarkably sophisticated, letting directors essentially "shoot" rough versions of entire films before cameras roll
• Budget barriers will drop dramatically, enabling more independent filmmakers to produce visually ambitious work

Script and development assistance

• AI will likely serve as a powerful brainstorming and drafting partner rather than a full replacement for writers, since audiences tend to crave genuine human perspective and surprise
• Studio executives will probably use AI to analyze scripts for market performance, which could both streamline and homogenize greenlighting decisions
• Translation and localization will improve enormously, further globalizing content

Where I'm genuinely uncertain

AI-generated actors and deepfakes

• The technology will certainly be capable of photorealistic synthetic performers, but whether audiences want this is an open question. People connect with real human stories behind performances
• We'll likely see a spectrum: digital resurrections of deceased actors, synthetic background performers, and possibly some AI "stars" in niche content
• Deepfake concerns will probably drive robust digital provenance standards and watermarking

The regulatory and labor landscape

• The 2023 SAG-AFTRA/WGA strikes were essentially a preview. Expect ongoing, evolving negotiations about AI usage rights
• Different countries will regulate differently, creating a patchwork that shapes where productions happen
• Estate and likeness rights law will become a major legal specialty

The harder predictions

What might surprise us

• Personalized films — where AI adjusts story elements, pacing, or even endings for individual viewers — could emerge but might also face backlash as "not real filmmaking"
• The flood of AI-generated content may paradoxically increase the value of verified human-made art, similar to how mass production boosted artisan goods
• New art forms we can't currently name will likely emerge at the intersection of interactive media, AI, and traditional cinema

What probably won't happen

• Full replacement of human actors, directors, and writers at the top tier. Filmmaking is fundamentally about human communication, and provenance matters to audiences
• A complete collapse of the industry — more likely a significant restructuring

The honest caveat

Predictions about technology a decade out have a poor track record. The most transformative effects will probably be things few people are currently discussing. What I'm most confident about is that the social and legal responses to AI will shape the industry at least as much as the technology itself.

The central tension will be between democratization (more people making more things) and devaluation (a flood of content making it harder to sustain creative careers). How that tension resolves is ultimately a political and cultural question, not just a technological one.