Below is a simplified LBO build for HarborTech Services (HTS).
All figures in $m unless noted.
Rounding: tables are rounded; IRR/MOIC use unrounded math.

0) Entry / Sources & Uses

• FY2025 EBITDA: 120.0
• Purchase price: 12.0x EBITDA
  → Enterprise value = 12.0 × 120.0 = 1,440.0
• Transaction fees: 2.0% of EV
  → 28.8
• Total uses = 1,468.8

Sources

• Term Loan: 4.0x EBITDA = 480.0
• Mezzanine: 1.5x EBITDA = 180.0
• Equity: 1,468.8 - 660.0 = 808.8

Assumptions used in the model:

• Term Loan cash interest = 9.0% on beginning balance
• Term Loan amortization = 1.0% of original principal per year = 4.8
• Mezz cash interest = 12.0% on beginning balance
• Mezz PIK = 2.0% on beginning balance, added to principal annually
• All excess cash after required payments is swept to optional Term Loan paydown

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1) FY2026–FY2030 operating + debt schedule

Key formula

[ \text{Cash Taxes} = 25% \times \max(0,\ \text{EBITDA} - \text{cash interest}) ]

[ \text{FCF after debt service} = \text{EBITDA} - \text{TL cash int} - \text{Mezz cash int} - \text{cash taxes} - \text{capex} - \Delta NWC - 4.8 ]

That FCF is fully used for optional Term Loan paydown.

FY	Revenue	EBITDA	TL cash int	Mezz cash int	Cash taxes	Capex	ΔNWC	FCF after debt service (= TL sweep)	Ending Term Loan	Ending Mezz
2026	972.0	136.1	43.2	21.6	17.8	29.2	0.4	19.1	456.1	183.6
2027	1,040.0	156.0	41.0	22.0	23.2	31.2	0.3	33.4	417.9	187.3
2028	1,102.4	176.4	37.6	22.5	29.1	33.1	0.3	49.0	364.1	191.0
2029	1,157.6	191.0	32.8	22.9	33.8	34.7	0.3	61.7	297.6	194.8
2030	1,215.4	206.6	26.8	23.4	39.1	36.5	0.3	75.8	217.0	198.7

Example math check: FY2026

• Revenue = 900.0 × 1.08 = 972.0
• EBITDA = 14.0% × 972.0 = 136.1
• Cash interest = 9.0% × 480.0 + 12.0% × 180.0 = 43.2 + 21.6 = 64.8
• Taxes = 25% × (136.1 - 64.8) = 17.8
• Capex = 3.0% × 972.0 = 29.2
• ΔNWC = 0.5% × (972.0 - 900.0) = 0.4
• FCF after debt service = 136.1 - 43.2 - 21.6 - 17.8 - 29.2 - 0.4 - 4.8 = 19.1
• Ending Term Loan = 480.0 - 4.8 - 19.1 = 456.1
• Ending Mezz = 180.0 × 1.02 = 183.6

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2) Exit, equity value, MOIC, IRR

Exit at end of FY2030

• FY2030 EBITDA: 206.625
• Exit multiple: 10.5x
  → Gross EV = 10.5 × 206.625 = 2,169.565
• Exit fees: 1.0% of EV = 21.696
• Net EV after fees = 2,147.870

Debt repaid at exit

• Term Loan: 216.986
• Mezz (incl. PIK): 198.735
• Total debt repaid: 415.720

Equity proceeds

[ 2,147.870 - 415.720 = 1,732.150 ]

Returns

• Initial equity invested: 808.8

• Equity MOIC:
  [ 1,732.150 \div 808.8 = 2.14x ]

• Equity IRR (5 years):
  [ \left(\frac{1,732.150}{808.8}\right)^{1/5} - 1 = 16.5% ]

Base-case result

• MOIC: 2.14x
• IRR: 16.5%

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3) Sensitivity: Equity IRR

Assumption for this grid: only FY2030 EBITDA margin changes (to 16% / 17% / 18% on the same FY2030 revenue), and FY2030 taxes / debt paydown update accordingly.

Equity IRR sensitivity (%)

FY2030 EBITDA margin \ Exit multiple	9.5x	10.5x	11.5x
16%	11.7%	14.6%	17.2%
17%	13.6%	16.5%	19.1%
18%	15.3%	18.2%	20.8%

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4) 5 underwriting risks

1. Contract renewal / repricing risk
   “Recurring” revenue can still re-bid or reset on price, especially with sophisticated data-center customers.

2. Customer concentration risk
   A few hyperscale / colo customers could drive a disproportionate share of EBITDA.

3. Labor availability and wage inflation
   Skilled HVAC technicians are hard to hire/retain; wage pressure can delay margin expansion.

4. SLA / uptime liability risk
   HTS is mission-critical; service failures can trigger credits, penalties, reputational damage, and lost renewals.

5. Leverage + exit multiple risk
   Entry leverage is meaningful (5.5x, including mezz with PIK); if growth/margins underperform and exit multiple compresses, equity returns can fall quickly.

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5) 5 concrete downside protection levers

1. Underwrite leverage only to recurring service EBITDA
   Haircut or exclude any non-recurring project/install EBITDA when sizing debt and valuation.

2. Use more equity / less mezz if diligence is mixed
   Especially if top-customer renewal visibility or labor retention is weak.

3. Keep strict cash control
   Full excess-cash sweep, no dividends, and ideally a springing maintenance covenant / minimum liquidity test.

4. Improve contract economics
   Push for multi-year terms, CPI/labor escalators, parts pass-throughs, and auto-renewal mechanics.

5. Protect field execution capacity
   Fund technician retention programs, training, and backup subcontractor/OEM coverage to reduce SLA miss risk.

If you want, I can also turn this into a compact IC memo format with an investment recommendation and bull/base/bear summary.