Historical Counterfactual Analysis
If the transistor had been invented in 1920 instead of 1947, trace the likely technological, economic, and geopolitical implications through…
The Transistor in 1920: A Counterfactual Cascade to 1980 A Note on Plausibility (Brief, Because It Matters) This isn't pure fantasy — Julius Lilienfeld actually filed patents in 1925-1934 for field-effect semiconductor amplifiers. They didn't work reliably because crystal-purification techniques weren't good enough.Read the full answer
Premise: A functional solid-state transistor (germanium point-contact or junction) is demonstrated in 1920, with steady refinement through the interwar years. Vacuum tubes are not immediately displaced, but by the early 1930s transistors are reliable enough for niche military and telecom use, and by the late 1930s they…Read the full answer