Historical Counterfactual Analysis
If the transistor had been invented in 1920 instead of 1947, trace the likely technological, economic, and geopolitical implications through…
The Spark of Divergence: The Empirical Transistor (1920) In our timeline, the transistor was delayed until 1947 because the materials science of ultra-pure single-crystal semiconductors did not yet exist, and the quantum mechanical understanding of solids (such as Alan Wilson’s band theory) was not published until…Read the full answer
Counterfactual: The Transistor in 1920 This is a fun one to work through carefully. Let me establish the premise, then trace second- and third-order effects. The Premise Assume point-contact or early junction transistor physics is discovered ~1920 (say, by accident in vacuum tube/semiconductor rectifier research—the…Read the full answer