Historical Counterfactual Analysis
If the transistor had been invented in 1920 instead of 1947, trace the likely technological, economic, and geopolitical implications through…
The Point of Divergence: 1920 To make this scenario plausible, we assume that Julius Lilienfeld’s theoretical patents for the field-effect transistor (FET) were accompanied by a breakthrough in materials science—specifically, the purification of germanium or silicon—allowing practical manufacturing by a major player…Read the full answer
If the point-contact or junction transistor had been invented in 1920—roughly 27 years ahead of reality—it would have shifted the entire timeline of the 20th century. A 27-year acceleration in solid-state electronics does not merely mean "we get iPhones sooner."Read the full answer