Historical Counterfactual Analysis
If the transistor had been invented in 1920 instead of 1947, trace the likely technological, economic, and geopolitical implications through…
The Point of Divergence: 1920 To make this scenario plausible, we assume that Julius Lilienfeld’s theoretical patents for the field-effect transistor (FET) were accompanied by a breakthrough in materials science—specifically, the purification of germanium or silicon—allowing practical manufacturing by a major player…Read the full answer
If the point-contact and field-effect transistor had been developed in 1920—likely through an accelerated synthesis of early quantum mechanics and materials science at an institution like Bell Labs, General Electric, or Germany’s Telefunken—the timeline of the 20th century would have decoupled from mechanical and…Read the full answer