Historical Counterfactual Analysis
If the transistor had been invented in 1920 instead of 1947, trace the likely technological, economic, and geopolitical implications through…
The Point of Divergence: 1920 To make this scenario plausible, we assume that Julius Lilienfeld’s theoretical patents for the field-effect transistor (FET) were accompanied by a breakthrough in materials science—specifically, the purification of germanium or silicon—allowing practical manufacturing by a major player…Read the full answer
If the transistor had been invented in 1920—likely as an empirical discovery in solid-state physics using point-contact crystals (similar to Julius Lilienfeld’s real-world 1925 theoretical patents, but made fully functional)—it would have compressed modern technological history by nearly three decades.Read the full answer