Historical Counterfactual Analysis
If the transistor had been invented in 1920 instead of 1947, trace the likely technological, economic, and geopolitical implications through…
Counterfactual: The Transistor in 1920 This is a fun one to work through carefully. Let me establish the premise, then trace second- and third-order effects. The Premise Assume point-contact or early junction transistor physics is discovered ~1920 (say, by accident in vacuum tube/semiconductor rectifier research—the…Read the full answer
The Transistor in 1920: A Counterfactual History Through 1980 Preface This is, of course, a deeply speculative exercise. The transistor's invention in 1947 was not accidental—it emerged from specific materials science knowledge (quantum mechanics, semiconductor purification techniques, solid-state physics) that did not…Read the full answer