Historical Counterfactual Analysis
If the transistor had been invented in 1920 instead of 1947, trace the likely technological, economic, and geopolitical implications through…
If the Transistor Had Been Invented in 1920: A Counterfactual Trajectory to 1980 Preconditions and plausibility By 1920, Karl Braun's cathode ray tube (1897) and Greenleaf Pickard's silicon crystal detector (1906) had already demonstrated semiconductor properties. Quantum theory was nascent (Planck, Bohr).Read the full answer
Premise: what changes, and what does not Assume the transistor is invented in 1920 in a form roughly comparable to the late-1940s germanium point-contact or early junction transistor: it can amplify, detect, and switch signals, but it is initially expensive, low-yield, low-power, and limited in frequency.Read the full answer