Historical Counterfactual Analysis
If the transistor had been invented in 1920 instead of 1947, trace the likely technological, economic, and geopolitical implications through…
The Point of Divergence: 1920 To make this scenario plausible, we assume that Julius Lilienfeld’s theoretical patents for the field-effect transistor (FET) were accompanied by a breakthrough in materials science—specifically, the purification of germanium or silicon—allowing practical manufacturing by a major player…Read the full answer
A transistor invented in 1920 would not simply move the entire digital age back by 27 years. The transistor depended on related capabilities: purified germanium and silicon, crystal growth, quantum/solid-state theory, precision metallurgy, photolithography, clean rooms, statistical quality control, and a large market…Read the full answer