Historical Counterfactual Analysis
If the transistor had been invented in 1920 instead of 1947, trace the likely technological, economic, and geopolitical implications through…
The Point of Divergence: 1920 To make this scenario plausible, we assume that Julius Lilienfeld’s theoretical patents for the field-effect transistor (FET) were accompanied by a breakthrough in materials science—specifically, the purification of germanium or silicon—allowing practical manufacturing by a major player…Read the full answer
If the Transistor Had Arrived in 1920 The Premise: Why 1920 Was Nearly Impossible Before tracing effects, note the counterfactual requires heroic assumptions. The transistor depended on quantum mechanics (solid-state band theory, ~1928-1933), ultrapure semiconductor materials (zone refining, 1950s), and wartime radar…Read the full answer