Historical Counterfactual Analysis
If the transistor had been invented in 1920 instead of 1947, trace the likely technological, economic, and geopolitical implications through…
The Point of Divergence: 1920 To make this scenario plausible, we assume that Julius Lilienfeld’s theoretical patents for the field-effect transistor (FET) were accompanied by a breakthrough in materials science—specifically, the purification of germanium or silicon—allowing practical manufacturing by a major player…Read the full answer
Premise: A functional solid-state transistor (germanium point-contact or junction) is demonstrated in 1920, with steady refinement through the interwar years. Vacuum tubes are not immediately displaced, but by the early 1930s transistors are reliable enough for niche military and telecom use, and by the late 1930s they…Read the full answer