Historical Counterfactual Analysis
If the transistor had been invented in 1920 instead of 1947, trace the likely technological, economic, and geopolitical implications through…
The Point of Divergence: 1920 To make this scenario plausible, we assume that Julius Lilienfeld’s theoretical patents for the field-effect transistor (FET) were accompanied by a breakthrough in materials science—specifically, the purification of germanium or silicon—allowing practical manufacturing by a major player…Read the full answer
The Transistor in 1920: A Counterfactual History Through 1980 Preamble: The Invention Itself The transistor's actual invention required quantum mechanical understanding of semiconductor behavior. In 1920, this theory didn't yet exist.Read the full answer