Historical Counterfactual Analysis
If the transistor had been invented in 1920 instead of 1947, trace the likely technological, economic, and geopolitical implications through…
The Point of Divergence: 1920 To make this scenario plausible, we assume that Julius Lilienfeld’s theoretical patents for the field-effect transistor (FET) were accompanied by a breakthrough in materials science—specifically, the purification of germanium or silicon—allowing practical manufacturing by a major player…Read the full answer
If the Transistor Had Been Invented in 1920: A Counterfactual Trajectory to 1980 Preconditions and plausibility By 1920, Karl Braun's cathode ray tube (1897) and Greenleaf Pickard's silicon crystal detector (1906) had already demonstrated semiconductor properties. Quantum theory was nascent (Planck, Bohr).Read the full answer