Historical Counterfactual Analysis
If the transistor had been invented in 1920 instead of 1947, trace the likely technological, economic, and geopolitical implications through…
A Transistor in 1920: Counterfactual Trajectory to 1980 Framing assumptions and a key constraint The transistor was not held back by a missing idea alone. Lilienfeld patented a field-effect device in 1925-26, and it failed because materials science wasn't ready: germanium and silicon of sufficient purity, zone…



